Timeline of the Western Saharan clashes (2020–present)
The Timeline of the Western Saharan clashes (2020–present) details the military confrontations and political events that have transpired in Western Sahara since the breakdown of the ceasefire agreement between Morocco and the Polisario Front in November 2020. The clashes mark a resumption of armed conflict after a nearly three-decade hiatus, significantly impacting the political landscape and regional stability.
Background:
The Western Sahara conflict stems from Morocco's annexation of the territory following Spain's withdrawal in 1975. The Polisario Front, representing the Sahrawi people, seeks self-determination for Western Sahara and has historically fought for independence, backed by Algeria. A ceasefire agreement brokered by the United Nations in 1991 largely held until 2020.
Key Events:
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November 13, 2020: The Moroccan army launched an operation in the Guerguerat buffer zone to clear a road blockade by Sahrawi activists. The Polisario Front declared the 1991 ceasefire agreement null and void, citing the Moroccan intervention as a violation.
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November 14, 2020 onwards: Reports of intermittent attacks by the Polisario Front on Moroccan military positions along the Western Saharan barrier (also known as the Berm). The Polisario claimed responsibility for attacks targeting various sectors of the Berm and military installations. Morocco largely downplayed the severity of the attacks and the extent of casualties.
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Late 2020 and 2021: Both sides engaged in a war of information, with the Polisario Front releasing communiqués detailing alleged attacks and casualties inflicted on Moroccan forces, while Morocco maintained a tight control on information access and reporting in the region. Verifying claims from either side independently remained challenging.
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Throughout 2021-2024: Continued reports of skirmishes and exchanges of fire, primarily along the Berm. The Polisario Front leadership maintained its commitment to armed struggle until Sahrawi self-determination is achieved. International mediation efforts, primarily led by the United Nations, struggled to gain traction. The appointment of new UN Special Envoys did not immediately result in a resumption of direct negotiations.
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Ongoing Political Developments: The resumption of hostilities has complicated the political dynamics of the Western Sahara dispute. International actors, including the United Nations, European Union, and African Union, have called for a peaceful resolution and a resumption of negotiations. However, fundamental differences in positions between Morocco and the Polisario Front, particularly regarding the possibility of self-determination, continue to hinder progress. Morocco's strengthened diplomatic ties with some nations, including the United States, further complicated the political landscape.
Impact:
The renewed clashes have had several significant impacts:
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Humanitarian Concerns: The conflict has raised concerns about the humanitarian situation in the Sahrawi refugee camps in Algeria, where many Sahrawis have resided for decades.
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Regional Instability: The conflict has exacerbated tensions between Morocco and Algeria, with Algeria being a key supporter of the Polisario Front.
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Diplomatic Challenges: The conflict has presented a significant diplomatic challenge for the international community, particularly the United Nations, which has been tasked with finding a lasting solution to the Western Sahara dispute.
Future Outlook:
The future trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain. The fundamental differences between Morocco and the Polisario Front, coupled with regional geopolitical complexities, make a swift resolution unlikely. Continued international pressure and renewed efforts at mediation are crucial to de-escalate the conflict and create a path toward a peaceful and just resolution of the Western Sahara dispute.