2009 JF1

2009 JF1 is a small near-Earth asteroid (NEA) that gained brief notoriety in 2019 and again in 2022 due to preliminary automated impact risk assessments that indicated a statistically non-zero, though extremely low, chance of Earth impact on May 6, 2022.

The asteroid is estimated to be about 10 meters in diameter. At this size, impact with Earth would not pose a global threat, but could cause localized damage similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor event.

The initial concern arose due to uncertainties in the asteroid's orbit based on a relatively short observation arc. These uncertainties were amplified by the asteroid's small size, making it difficult to observe and track accurately.

As more observations were made and the asteroid's orbit became better determined, the probability of impact was quickly revised downwards. By 2022, the initial impact possibility was ruled out by the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA. The asteroid is no longer considered a significant threat.

2009 JF1 serves as an example of how initial automated risk assessments can flag potential impactors based on limited data, and how subsequent observations and refined orbital calculations typically lead to a more accurate assessment of the actual threat. It highlights the importance of continuous monitoring of near-Earth objects and the ongoing refinement of asteroid tracking and prediction methods.