SciCast

SciCast was a forecasting tournament platform managed by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). It aimed to improve the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of forecasts on a wide range of scientific and technological issues. Participants, often referred to as forecasters, made probabilistic predictions about future events described by specific questions. These questions covered topics such as the development of new technologies, the outcome of scientific experiments, and future trends in various scientific fields.

The SciCast platform collected these forecasts, aggregated them using various algorithms, and provided feedback to forecasters based on their performance. This feedback loop allowed forecasters to refine their prediction strategies and improve their overall accuracy. SciCast was intended to identify individuals and techniques that could reliably forecast future developments in science and technology, thereby informing policy decisions and resource allocation in related fields. The program also researched methods for eliciting, aggregating, and evaluating forecasts to improve forecasting methodology in general.