Grey swan

A grey swan is an event whose possibility is recognized, but which is often dismissed as unlikely or unimportant until it occurs. It combines elements of both black swan and white swan events. Unlike a black swan, which is a completely unexpected event with severe consequences, a grey swan carries warnings and potential signals that are often overlooked or misinterpreted. Unlike a white swan, which is an expected and understood event, a grey swan's impact is often significantly underestimated.

Grey swan events often stem from known vulnerabilities, emerging risks, or patterns of behavior that are not adequately addressed. They may be identified in risk assessments or expert forecasts, but are downplayed due to cognitive biases, organizational inertia, or a lack of resources to implement preventive measures. The consequences of a grey swan event can range from moderate disruptions to significant crises, depending on the nature of the event and the preparedness of those affected.

The term highlights the importance of proactively monitoring and addressing known risks, rather than solely focusing on unpredictable black swan events or readily manageable white swan events. Successfully managing grey swan events requires a combination of vigilance, risk awareness, and a willingness to take action on potential threats, even when their likelihood is perceived to be low. It also necessitates the ability to adapt and learn from past experiences, both positive and negative, to improve future risk management strategies.