Conflict in Rakhine State (2016–present)

The Conflict in Rakhine State (2016–present) refers to an ongoing series of armed conflicts, communal violence, and political instability primarily affecting the Rakhine State in Myanmar (formerly Burma). The conflict involves multiple actors, including the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's armed forces), the Arakan Army (AA), the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), and various ethnic Rakhine and Rohingya communities.

Background:

Historically, Rakhine State has been characterized by deep-seated ethnic and religious tensions, primarily between the majority-Buddhist Rakhine population and the Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim minority group. The Rohingya's citizenship status has been a long-standing point of contention, with many denied citizenship under Myanmar's 1982 citizenship law. This denial of rights has contributed to their marginalization and vulnerability. Grievances related to land rights, economic opportunities, and political representation further exacerbate these tensions.

Key Phases and Actors:

• October 2016 – August 2017: This period saw escalating violence following attacks by ARSA on Myanmar border posts in October 2016. The Tatmadaw responded with large-scale military operations that resulted in widespread human rights abuses against the Rohingya population.

• August 2017 Onward: A larger ARSA attack on security forces in August 2017 triggered a massive military crackdown. This led to a mass exodus of Rohingya refugees, with over 700,000 fleeing to neighboring Bangladesh. The UN and other international organizations have documented evidence of systematic human rights violations, including killings, sexual violence, and arson, potentially constituting crimes against humanity and genocide.

• Ongoing Conflict with the Arakan Army (AA): Since 2018, the conflict has increasingly involved the Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine armed group seeking greater autonomy for Rakhine State. Clashes between the AA and the Tatmadaw have displaced tens of thousands of Rakhine civilians and complicated the already fragile humanitarian situation. The AA's operations have expanded beyond northern Rakhine State.

Humanitarian Crisis:

The conflict has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis. Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees remain in overcrowded camps in Bangladesh, facing dire conditions and limited access to essential services. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Rakhine State also face significant challenges, including food insecurity, lack of shelter, and limited access to healthcare. Humanitarian access to affected areas has often been restricted by the Myanmar government, hindering aid efforts.

International Response:

The international community has condemned the violence in Rakhine State and called for accountability for human rights abuses. The UN, the International Criminal Court (ICC), and individual countries have pursued various avenues for investigating and prosecuting alleged perpetrators. International sanctions have been imposed on Myanmar military officials. Despite international pressure, the situation remains volatile and unresolved.

Current Situation:

The conflict continues to simmer, with sporadic clashes and ongoing displacement. The military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 has further complicated the situation, leading to increased instability and a deterioration of human rights across the country, including in Rakhine State. The future of the Rohingya and the prospects for peace and reconciliation in Rakhine State remain uncertain.