Panayiotis Varotsos (Greek: Παναγιώτης Βαρώτσος; born 28 November 1947 in Patras, Greece) is a Greek physicist and former professor in the Department of Physics at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. He is known for developing the VAN (Varotsos–Alexopoulos–Nomikos) method for earthquake prediction, which proposes that certain low‑frequency electromagnetic signals—referred to as seismic electric signals (SES)—can be detected as precursors to seismic events.
Education and Academic Career
Varotsos completed his higher education in physics in Greece, ultimately joining the faculty of the University of Athens, where he taught and conducted research until his retirement.
Research Contributions
The principal focus of Varotsos’s research is the identification and interpretation of electromagnetic phenomena associated with stress accumulation in the Earth’s crust. Together with collaborators, he introduced the concept of “natural time” analysis, a statistical framework for studying the temporal order of events in complex systems, and applied it to seismicity. The VAN method, developed in collaboration with K. Alexopoulos and D. Nomikos, claims that piezo‑electric effects in stressed rocks generate measurable electric signals that precede earthquakes.
Publications
Key works authored or co‑authored by Varotsos include:
- Thermodynamics of Point Defects and Their Relation with the Bulk Properties (1985, with K. Alexopoulos) – a monograph on defect thermodynamics.
- The Physics of Seismic Electric Signals (2005) – a comprehensive treatment of the VAN method and related electromagnetic observations.
- Natural Time Analysis: The New View of Time; Precursory Seismic Electric Signals, Earthquakes and Other Complex Time Series (2011, with N. Sarlis and E. Skordas) – detailing the natural time methodology and its applications.
Awards and Honors
Varotsos has received several recognitions for his scientific contributions:
- Onassis Foundation Laureate for the Environment (1995)
- Academy of Athens award (1978)
- Empeirikion Foundation award (1986)
- Prize from the Union of Greek Physicists, presented by the President of Greece (2016)
Professional Activities
Beyond his university duties, Varotsos has been active in scientific societies and conferences related to geophysics and electromagnetism, and he has contributed to public outreach on earthquake preparedness in Greece.
Legacy
While the VAN method remains controversial within the broader seismological community, Varotsos’s work has stimulated extensive research into electromagnetic precursors and the statistical analysis of seismicity, influencing both theoretical and applied aspects of earthquake science.