Opinion polling for the 1989 Spanish general election comprised a series of public opinion surveys carried out by various market‑research firms and the state‑run Centre for the Sociological Research (CIS) in the months leading up to the general election held on 29 October 1989.
Purpose and Scope
The polls aimed to gauge voter intentions for the 1989 election to the Congress of Deputies (the lower house of the Cortes Generales) and, to a lesser extent, the Senate. They typically covered the three main national parties—Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), People's Party (PP, then known as the People's Alliance/Alianza Popular), and Democratic and Social Centre (CDS)—as well as smaller parties such as United Left (IU) and regional formations.
Key Polling Organisations
- CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) – the official government polling institute, publishing regular monthly and weekly surveys.
- Hernán y Asociados, GAD7, ICIS, and other private firms also released pre‑election polls, often reported in national newspapers such as El País, ABC, and La Vanguardia.
Methodology
- Majority of surveys employed telephone interviews (landline) with random‑digit dialing, supplemented by face‑to‑face interviews in some cases.
- Sample sizes usually ranged from 1,000 to 2,500 respondents, with margins of error around ±3 percentage points.
- Polls were weighted to reflect the demographic composition of the adult population (age, gender, education, region).
Polling Trends
- Early 1989 polls showed the PSOE maintaining a lead of roughly 5–8 percentage points over the PP.
- Mid‑year surveys indicated a slight narrowing of the gap, with the PP gaining modest ground while CDS remained relatively stable.
- By September‑October, many polls projected the PSOE to win a plurality, though the exact seat distribution varied across surveys.
Final Election Outcome (for context)
- PSOE won 39.5 % of the vote (163 seats).
- PP secured 35.6 % (107 seats).
- CDS obtained 9.5 % (28 seats).
- United Left received 10.6 % (17 seats).
Relevance of Polls
The opinion polls provided valuable insight into voter sentiment and were used by media outlets to analyse campaign dynamics. They also served as benchmarks for parties to adjust their strategies during the final campaigning period.
Limitations
- As with all pre‑election surveys, methodological differences (sampling frame, question wording) could lead to variation among results.
- Some polls faced criticism for potential under‑representation of younger voters and for limited regional granularity.
Overall, opinion polling for the 1989 Spanish general election is documented through the publications of CIS and several private research firms, offering a quantitative picture of the electoral climate preceding the October 1989 vote.
