The List of countries by Fragile States Index is an annual compilation published by the non‑governmental organization Fund for Peace. The index ranks sovereign states according to their levels of fragility, using a composite score that aggregates social, economic, political, and security indicators. Scores range from 0 (least fragile) to 120 (most fragile); lower scores indicate greater stability, while higher scores denote a higher risk of state failure.
Purpose and Scope
- Objective: To provide a quantitative assessment of state fragility that can inform policymakers, scholars, and development practitioners.
- Coverage: All United Nations member states and a limited number of territories for which sufficient data are available. The index excludes entities that lack reliable statistics or are not universally recognized as sovereign states.
Methodology
- Indicators: The index combines 12 primary indicators grouped into four thematic clusters:
- Cohesion: Demographic pressures, refugees and internally displaced persons, group grievance.
- Economic: Economic decline, uneven development, poverty and economic inequality.
- Political: State legitimacy, public services, human rights and rule of law, security apparatus.
- External: External intervention, external evaluation and assistance.
- Scoring: Each indicator is scored on a 0–10 scale; the 12 scores are summed to produce the overall fragility score.
- Weighting: All indicators receive equal weight in the final calculation, though adjustments may be made for data availability.
- Data Sources: The Fund for Peace draws on a range of reputable sources, including the World Bank, United Nations agencies, International Crisis Group, and national statistical offices.
Recent Rankings (2023 Fragile States Index)
The following reflects the most recent publicly released data (2023). Scores are rounded to one decimal place.
| Rank | Country | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yemen | 115.3 |
| 2 | Somalia | 114.9 |
| 3 | South Sudan | 114.2 |
| 4 | Syria | 112.7 |
| 5 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 111.9 |
| … | … | … |
| 170 | Finland | 10.6 |
| 169 | Norway | 10.7 |
| 168 | Denmark | 10.8 |
| 167 | Iceland | 10.9 |
| 166 | Sweden | 11.0 |
Note: The exact number of ranked entities can vary year‑to‑year because of changes in data availability and geopolitical status.
Interpretation
- High‑scoring countries (above 100) are considered “alert” or “high alert” and face acute threats such as ongoing armed conflict, massive displacement, or extreme governance breakdown.
- Low‑scoring countries (below 30) are classified as “low alert”, indicating relatively stable institutions, cohesive societies, and robust economic performance.
Trends and Observations
- Conflict‑driven fragility remains the dominant factor; states experiencing protracted wars (e.g., Yemen, Syria) consistently rank at the top.
- Economic downturns and political legitimacy crises also contribute significantly, as seen in nations undergoing severe recession or authoritarian backsliding.
- Regional patterns: Sub‑Saharan Africa and the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region frequently host the most fragile states, while the Nordic countries and parts of Western Europe dominate the least fragile end of the spectrum.
Availability
- The full list, including detailed scores for all indicators, is released each year on the Fund for Peace website (https://fragilestatesindex.org) and is incorporated into academic databases and policy briefs.
- Historical lists dating back to 2005 are also accessible, allowing longitudinal analyses of state fragility over time.
Limitations
- Data Gaps: Some countries lack reliable statistics for certain indicators, potentially affecting the precision of their scores.
- Subjectivity in Weighting: Although the methodology strives for objectivity, the selection and scaling of indicators involve expert judgment.
- Temporal Lag: The index reflects conditions measured in the year preceding publication; rapid developments may not be immediately captured.
The List of countries by Fragile States Index serves as a widely cited reference for evaluating the resilience of sovereign states and tracking how political, economic, and security dynamics evolve globally.
